The Account
For a period of time, Gavin Arvizo had to urinate in a large bottle to keep record of it. Janet Arvizo, his mother was the individual monoriting the urine preparation. The urine would then be brought to Gavin’s doctor for Analysis the next day. The Analysis was to determine how Gavin’s kidneys were functioning due to his prior illness of cancer which limited his kidney function. On the morning, prior to leaving Michael Jackson’s Ranch by car, the sample was collected, Gavin, Star and Janet Arvizo entered the car to leave for Gavin’s doctor appointment at Kaiser Permanente Hospital in Los Angeles.
Vincent Amen drove the car with the family to bring them to Gavin’s doctor with the urine sample. The kids sat in the back seats of the car with Janet Arvizo in the front with the urine sample. Everyone left the ranch in the morning and would arrive in Los Angeles several hours later. The children had fallen asleep in the back seat of the car while in route to the hospital.
Account in Contention
Vincent Amen’s Account
Closer to Santa Barbara than L.A., the urine sample spilled in the car in the front passenger seat floor where Janet was holding the bottle. Janet asked for the car to be pulled over so the urine could be cleaned up. The car pulled over at the next rest stop where there was a gas station. Janet exited the car to get paper towels. She then came back, cleaned the spilled urine and then everyone proceeded to the hospital.
Janet Arvizo’s Account (from media/sbda)
Closer to Santa Barbara than L.A., Janet asked Vincent to pull the car over since she needed to use the rest area. Janet alleges she exited the car, went into the rest area and left the urine sample in the car. Janet alleges that when she returned the urine sample bottle was nearly empty. Janet alleges when she asked Vincent what happened, he said it spilled. Everyone then proceeded to the hospital.
On arriving to the hospital, the car was parked and everyone exited the car with Janet bringing the bottle with the urine sample. Everyone went up several floors of the hospital to the floor of Gavin’s doctor. Upon this arrival, Vincent left the building to have lunch. The appointment would take some time due to a kidney dye test needed to be performed on Gavin. Janet called Vincent roughly 1 1/2 hours later when she was finished with the appointment to pick her and the kids up.
On return, Janet told Vincent that the urine sample was not enough to run the test and would have to be retaken at some point in the future.
Let’s take a look at the quantitative model and see if we can determine equilibrium points and motive.
A Model relating to the individuals and events surrounding the Urine Story.
qa = x1 jf1 + x2 jf2 + xz jfz
x1 jf1 = a1b1 + azbz
x2 jf2 = a1b1 + azbz
xz jfz = azbz
(3)
qa = urinesample1 jf1 + car2 jf2 + seatingincar3 jf3 + placement4 jf4 + samplespilled5 jf5 + reststop6 jf6 + hospital7 jf7 + appointment8 jf8 + departed9 jf9 + return10 jf10 + sampleinsufficient11 jf11 + xz jfz
urinesample1 jf1 = (Gavin’s urine sample collected for future test)1 b1 + az bz
car2 jf2 = (Everyone entered car to leave for the appointment)1 b1 + az bz
seatingincar3 jf3 = (Vincent drove, Janet in passenger seat, kids in backseat)1 b1 + az bz
placement4 jf4 = (Urine sample on floor of passenger seat, Janet holding)1 b1 + az bz
samplespilled5 jf5(1) = (Janet spilled urine in car)1 b1 + az bz
reststop6 jf6 = (Car pulled over to rest stop)1 b1 + az bz
samplespilled5 jf5(2) = (Vincent alleged spilled urine sample when Janet left car)1 b1 + az bz
hospital7 jf7 = (Car left for Kaiser Permanente Hospital)1 b1 + az bz
appointment8 jf8 = (Doctor Appointment, dye test for Gavin’s Kidney)1 b1 + az bz
departed9 jf9 = (Vincent left and went downstairs, Janet and kids at appointment)1 b1 + az bz
return10 jf10 = (Janet called Vincent to come back to pick the family up)1 b1 + az bz
sampleinsufficient11 jf11 = (Janet disclosed the urine test could not be determined due to insufficient sample)1 b1 + az bz
———
(3)
az variable can be verbal, written decription, picture or video
bz variable can be verbal, written decription, picture or video
———
Motive can be determined by analyzing the model and asking a question of interest between each or summation of equilibrium points.
Motives for Janet spilling urine |
1. Accidentally
2. Knowledge of Gavin drinking alcohol and it might show up in test
3. Unknown Motive Variable
Motives for Vincent allegedly spilling urine |
1. Knowledge of Gavin drinking alcohol and it might show up in test
2. Unknown Motive Variable
Credibility is another factor that needs to be accounted for to bolster witness statements about occurrence and action
Credibility
1. Vincent Amen’s Credibility
2. Janet Arvizo’s Credibility
Conclusion
The equilibrium point in question is the account of who spilled the urine and why. Based on the model, it can be determined that Vincent and Janet wanted to bring Gavin to the doctor for kidney tests. This is due to Vincent driving the family to the hospital and Janet keeping the appointment. The person who spilled the urine may be stored in an unknown variable. This variable is absent from the model that can be added
Drinking12 jf12
jf12 = Gavin drinking with Michael and being seen by witnesses
A plausible explanation is that Janet Arvizo’s children told her Gavin was drinking prior to the test with Michael since they witnessed this behavior. This is apparent from Janet’s and the children’s witness statements known to prosecutors.
Click Here to view the overt act within the conspiracy charge.
The overt act of the conspiracy charge states that Vincent Amen destroyed the urine sample. This is untrue since Vincent Amen did not destroy the sample and had no knowledge Gavin was drinking. If this knowledge was not present to Vincent, there would be no motive for him to spill the urine when allegedly Janet left the car. During witness testimony, not one witness said Vincent was a witness to Gavin drinking. The urine spilled in the front passenger seat by Janet Arvizo.
Lastly, it is plausible that Janet accidentally spilled the urine and motives were derived from the equilibrium point in contention.
Based on the model it can be determined Janet had knowledge Gavin was drinking and intentionally spilled the urine with the introduction of the drinking variable.
For further determination of the person of interest who spilled the urine, credibility can be accounted for.
Application to the law can be made by prosecutors and attorneys by creating this model; determining pattern and motive. If the equilibrium points show that laws were broken due to the pattern and motive charges can be filed. From this model, one can achieve close to equilibrium or truth as possible. Motives can be also closer to equilibrium or truth.
Last Point of Interest not included within this model
This was around the day the Brazil trip was cancelled by Vincent Amen. Click to See Brazil Model
This was around the day a meeting at the Laugh Factory had taken place between Janet Arvizo and her attorney Bill Dickerman.